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I have wondered how accurate the 20km RUC surface temperature maxima
(Tmax) might be in remote high elevations, particularly where model
resolution of the topography is marginal, so since February have been
storing surface temperature maxima obtained from a fire weather sensor
located near a mountain ridgetop and thought others might be
interested in a comparison to model 2m Tmax forecasts. The plot at
http://www.drjack.net/BLIPMAP/obs_vs_model_tmax.hernandez.png gives
155 values of observed vs 6-hour model forecast Tmaxs. I would expect an
offset between the two of 3.9 degF (based on an assumed lapse rate of
-0.6C/km with altitude) due to the difference between the actual
altitude (3752 ftMSL) and the smoothed model topography at that point
(2573 ftMSL), which is close to the actual value. More
importantly, the amount of individual day scatter is small compared to
the overall day-to-day changes in Tmax, so thouyh only a single
comparison (which in the atmospheric science game is always suspect),
it is very encouraging.
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